The GOLD Market by Martin Armstrong

The markets followed through after Friday’s closing but gold failed to close ABOVE 1900 last week and bounced off the projected resistance for this week 1910-1960 for this week topping at 1917. The sharp decline suggests a temporary high is coming as of this week, just four days early although the price target was achieved. The closing support remains at 1730 and a daily close beneath that area would warn of a nearby correction and we have a temporary high. A mere closing BELOW 1780 today will keep gold BEARISH for now. This is the correction that seems to be due for this period, but we need a weekly closing BELOW 1617 to confirm that. A further weekly closing BELOW 1583 would warn of a serious correction to flush-out a lot of people before any uptrend could resume.

Volatility will rise in November and should remain fairly high for the first quarter next year. A month-end closing BELOW 1630 would signal a serious correction is likely back to retest 1350.

This is the ideal QUARTER for the high being 43 such quarters from the 1999 low (5 x 8.6). At the very least, we should get one quarter correction with a max up to three taking us into the second quarter next year. That outcome would be indicated by a year-end closing BELOW 1427.

The bull market I not over long-term. The market will reveal its intent based upon the closings laid out. We did NOT get through the NORMAL projected resistance at 1910-1960, so that is good news in that we avoided a PHASE TRANSITION up to 2500 that would have warned we are in VERY serious trouble until the ECM turns in 2015.75

A detailed update will follow shortly.

Martin Armstrong can be contacted:  armstrongeconomics@gmail.com

Copyright Martin A. Armstrong All Rights Reserved August 24th, 2011