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Saturday, October 29, 2011

How Much Gold Stock is There Really?

The current estimate for the amount of gold stock in the world is in the region of 170,000 tonnes.  As the very first step, it needs to be acknowledged that an estimate is all that is available.  Running a worldwide survey on how much gold people own is rather pointless.
  Even in good times, people are noticeably reluctant to discuss their true wealth.  In troubled times, such as now, that becomes an unwillingness to even be interviewed.  Nevertheless, it also needs to be emphatically stated that 170,000 tonnes is far too low an estimate and that it is time for a revision.  Every single media outlet repeats this same figure, or similar, as though it is gospel.

Included in this 170,000 tonnes is the 10,000 tonnes estimated as being the total amount of gold mined in the history of the world prior to the Californian gold rush of 1848.  This was simply a guess.

‘David Guyatt, in his article “The Spoils of War”, commented that prior to the Californian Gold Rush of 1848 the amount of gold believed to be in existence was about 10,000 tonnes, i.e. it was “the sum total of gold mined throughout the world during the preceding 5,850 years, for which mining records exist.” In correspondence with the World Gold Council in 1998, Guyatt says that the WGC admitted that this figure was just an “industry estimate”, although as he says: “Nevertheless, this estimate has been incorporated into current day official mining figures and punched out as actual fact.”’

The Thunder Road Report

The “industry estimate” of the amount of gold mined in that 5,850 years works out to be 1.7 tonnes a year.  The assumption that underpins the idea that not much gold was mined prior to the Californian gold rush is essentially, that if it takes modern methods a whole year to extract 2,400 tonnes then it would take far, far longer for more primitive cultures to extract the same amount of gold.

The huge, gaping flaw in the modern versus primitive technology theory is that it assumes that all else was equal.  It unequivocally was not.  The further back into history we travel, the more accessible and plentiful gold was, just as it will be far less plentiful in the future than it is now.  Our ancestors mined all the easy to access gold in the world.  The Mesoamericans pulled chunks of it out of rivers with their hands it was so plentiful.  Today we are mining the residual leftovers – the sparse remnants of what was once plentiful.
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In 1986, Ernie Maceda the Filipino Minister for Natural Resources, revealed that the country’s gold panners produced more than 18 tonnes of gold a year.  All that from the placer mining of just one country.  The usefulness of this Filipino figures is that the law at the time stipulated that all gold had to be sold to the Filipino government.  Thus the miners were delivering directly to the central bank allowing for a more precise than usual estimate of gold production.

If primitive panning methods were able to produce a declared total of 18 tonnes a year in 1986,  then it makes a mockery of the claim that at an earlier time, when gold was in far greater abundance, the whole world was only able to produce 1.7 tonnes a year.  It goes far beyond just implausible, it speaks of an estimate made by people who were completely out of touch with the reality of gold production.

Nor should it be assumed that earlier gold extraction was as primitive as simple panning.  The Ancient Egyptians used far more sophisticated mining techniques than the Filipino panners.  This included fire techniques to break apart large rocks which were then crushed to dust before the residual gold was washed out.  The Mesoamericans were even more sophisticated.  Amongst other scientific feats, it is highly likely that they utilized the mercury amalgamation method of gold and silver extraction before the Europeans*.  The ancients were not as primitive as 20th and 21st century arrogance would have us assume.  To imagine them as knuckle-draggers scratching gold out of rocks with pointy sticks, and only able to glean 1.7 tonnes of gold per annum worldwide, speaks more to our lack of sophistication than theirs.

* ‘Pre-Columbian Societies Knew a Thing About Extracting Gold’ – AAAS.ORG
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From a meeting with Middle East power brokers in 2011…
“’You guys don’t show up on my radar screen here.  I have a feeling there’s a lot more gold around here than anyone is willing to admit.’  They all sort of looked at each other and smiled and so without saying so in so many words, I was led to believe there was a lot more gold out there than what shows up in the official statistics…”

Jim Rickards – investment banker and US Intelligence and defence insider.
When the tomb of Tutankhamen was opened in 1922 it contained staggering amounts of gold.  The coffin was over six foot long and made from solid gold an eighth to a quarter of an inch thick.  The best estimates are that the amount of gold needed to create this coffin alone would have been 1.5 tonnes.
“At first I could see nothing, the hot air escaping from the chamber causing the candle flames to flicker, but presently, as my eyes grew accustomed to the light, details of the room within emerged slowly from the mist, strange animals, statues and gold – everywhere the glint of gold. For the moment – an eternity it must have seemed to the others standing by – I was dumb with amazement, and when Lord Carnarvon, unable to stand the suspense any longer, inquired anxiously, ‘Can you see anything?’ it was all I could do to get out the words, “Yes, wonderful things.”

Howard Carter’s description upon opening Tutankhamen’s tomb – 1922
There were full sized, gold chariots in Tutankhamen’s tomb.  The famous facemask weighted over 24 kilograms.  All this from one of the least important pharaohs who died young and without ever leading an army.

Because of his insignificance, Tutankhamen was buried in one of the smallest and poorest of the pyramids.  His only claim to fame is that his tomb was relatively intact.  The 100 or so tombs of the other, far more revered pharaohs were discovered only after they had been stripped of all their gold.  How much gold existed in those other tombs can only be left to the imagination.

Even if the Ancient Egyptians, with their tens of thousands of slave labourers and more advanced techniques, were so incompetent that they were only able to mine the same amount per year as the Filipino panners of 1986, they did that for 2,000 years.  This most conservative of figures would have produced an amount of 36,000 tonnes of gold.  Ten times that amount would be the more likely figure.

By the time Roman gold mining records began, Egypt had already mined out its country of the easily available gold.  The Egyptians moved south and found enormous quantities of gold in the legendary mines of Nubia.  It is reputed that there was more gold mined from Nubia than from all other sources in the known world put together prior to the California gold rush.  Whilst the Nubian mines undoubtedly produced huge amounts of gold, that is unlikely.  There was also the Midian mine in the far north of what is now Saudi Arabia where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aqaba.  This area was famous for its abundance of gold.

“By 325 BC the Greeks had mined for gold from Gibraltar to Asia Minor.” (World Gold Council)
Even after the beginning of official records, only a percentage of the actual mining was recorded.  Probably a majority in some countries, but by no means all countries.  In many countries where gold mining took place, few records of any sort were even attempted until recent times.
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“…contains rich underground veins of many kinds, including many of silver and gold…”
Diodorus Siculus, Bibliotheca Historica, 1B.C. – speaking of India
The history of Asian gold is a book all on its own.  As with Egypt, by the time Roman records began, India had already mined out its country of the easily available gold.  Only in the present day has mining technology advanced to the point where the residual deposits are becoming viable again.

The Indus Civilization is the oldest in existing records, beginning just after the ending of the Ice-Age.  The Mehrgarh period of the Indus Civilization has been dated to at least 7,000 B.C..  The Ancient Egyptian Civilization came almost 4,000 years later.  There is some evidence to suggest that coinage originated in the Indus Civilization and speculation that the idea arrived in Lydia and the Greek states from there.

Between 2000 and 2010 India imported 7,500 tonnes of gold.  In just 2010 alone India imported a World Gold Council estimate of just under 1000 tonnes.  In 2011, imports are again expected to be 1,000 tonnes.  The Nizam of Hyderabad alone was reputed to own 15,000 tonnes.  The significance of gold to the Indians has never waned.  It is a major part of the fabric of the culture and far more than just a store of wealth, let alone a medium of exchange.  The Hindu creator was born from the cosmic egg of gold.  Brahma is known as ‘Hiranyagarbha’ – the one born of gold.  Hiranya, the ancient name for gold comes from the root ‘Hri’ meaning ‘imperishable’...finish reading at: http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/2011/10/how-much-gold-stock-is-there-really/