Friday the 07th October 2011 at 04:52 clock
The U.S. economist James Turk expected later this year, the collapse of a major bank and a renewed bull market in gold. 
Mr. Turk, the price of gold recently lost within a few days more than 15 percent of its value. The precious metal has lost its status as a "safe haven" in the current situation again?
No, absolutely not. In recent weeks, have lost virtually all asset classes in value. Gold was no exception. More importantly, however, seems to me that gold is a real value that has no counterparty risk. Therefore, the metal is still a "safe-haven investment."
Nevertheless, the price of gold behaves in recent extremely volatile.
Not only that gold is volatile. So also has the VIX index, which measures the volatility in the U.S. stock market has tripled in the last few months. In other words, everything is now exposed to enormous fluctuations, because the financial system is falling apart.
"It's like a last flutter"
To illustrate this, imagine a spinning top that comes before the shutdown flutter. The volatility that we experience now is just this last flutter. Against this background because I expect also that collapsed this year, a bank, as it was then Lehman Brothers.
Some investors fear that the gold bull market after a decade of a giant bubble is formed, which soon burst. How do you see that?
Many people claimed that even as the Dow Jones in 1984 increased over 1000 points. Incidentally, a level that had been broken at that time 16 years before. But as is now known, these self-appointed experts were wrong, because it only on price, but paid no respect to the assessment of individual companies in the Dow Jones index.
"After all my calculations, gold remains undervalued"
After all my calculations, gold remains clearly undervalued. The gold price has actually risen only because many currencies were devalued and thus lost purchasing power.
In contrast to the bull and bear market technical analysts talk in recent times, the gold price have predicted relatively accurately. They are as relevant to the predictions of the Chartists?
Not very important. For me, two things are the focus: the value and strategy. Gold is - as said - is undervalued and should therefore continue to be purchased, which in turn brings me to the second aspect: Strategy.
"The ounce will soon cost $ 2,000"
Gold purchases should be continuous in order to obtain a very good average price. Because gold is money, and against this background increases each gold purchase their own savings.
How much gold the end of year and the end of 2012 be?
Although the yellow precious metal recently suffered a setback guild, I am convinced that gold will soon write about 2,000 U.S. dollars an ounce. If not this year then certainly 2012th
Besides the gold and currencies like the franc or the yen, its "safe-haven status" have lost something. Do you see a connection?
No. These currencies lost their role as a safe haven because of the respective central banks interventions. The central banks determine the value of national currencies.
"Investors need to ask yourself is: Do the central banks do a good job?"
In contrast, the value of gold by the free market forces will determine - in other words, there are many investors who are aware of the continuing usefulness of gold.
What is the risk one runs with the ownership of gold?
In this respect, gold is like any other investment. They want to buy it when it is undervalued, and sell it when it is overvalued. Who knows how to properly evaluate a system can also control their risk.
What are the key points to watch out for the gold investor?
This is relatively simple. Investors have to ask just two questions: First, the central banks do a good job? And secondly, what are the interests of central banks? Those of the people or the banks and the government?
And your answer?
Central banks do today clearly a bad job. And as long as they are ready to rescue ailing banks with taxpayer money, it certainly does not serve the interests of the population.
"Everyone should stock up with gold"
Against this background and given the fact that the yellow precious metal should still undervalued, as is everybody stock up on gold.
James Turk is the founder of GoldMoney , which enables investors worldwide for the purchase, sale and storage of physical precious metals.The Americans specialized in international banking, finance and investment, after he had completed his studies in 1969 at George Washington University with a BA in International Economics. His professional career began at The Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan Chase), among other things, contracts in Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong.
Following James Turk joined the investment and trading company of a major precious metals trader based in Greenwich, Connecticut at. In December 1983 he moved to the United Arab Emirates, where he was appointed Manager of the Commodity Department of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. This position he held until his retirement in 1987.
Since 1987 James Turk is working independently. He is the author of two books and several monographs and articles on money and banking. He is also co-author of the book "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar" (Doubleday, December 2004), which was updated in a newly released paperback version, and now has the title " The Collapse of the Dollar »bears. In German at this link .
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