Where is gold headed in 2012. If Mineweb readers are anything to go by, and they have done well in past years, the yellow metal is headed sharply higher yet again.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 05 Jan 2012
LONDON -
What is going to happen to the gold price in 2012? Well if those Mineweb readers who have entered our Annual Gold Price Competition for 2012 are in any measure correct, then the yellow metal price is set for another good gain this year .
Mineweb readers do appear mostly to be bullish on gold and in the past have indeed tended to outcall the reality, although it should be noted that last year the only entry category (High, Low, Year-end and Average) for which readers came up with a higher price on average than that which was actually recorded, was in the year-end figure, where the sharp drop towards the end of the year took just about all principal gold followers by surprise. In the other three categories Mineweb readers on average undercalled the actuality.
So where are they trending this year? Of the entries received to date 79% are looking for the yellow metal to hit a high of more than $2000 during 2012, with an overall average of $2218. They are looking for some quite wide fluctuations during the year, though, with a low of $1491 predicted so far, a year-end price of $1968 and a year's average gold price of $1827.
Obviously a contrarian would take this as a good sign to sell gold, but with global economic turmoil unlikely to see any serious improvement during the year - and perhaps the fault lines in the U.S. economy being further exposed during Presidential Election campaigning - safe haven investment in gold is likely to remain, or even grow. The year-end highlighting that despite its final quarter fallback, and an excess of adverse media comment, that gold outperformed the stock markets comfortably over 2011 may be beginning to sink in with the investment public.
Interestingly on this note, Adrian Ash writing on bullionvault.com has pointed out that in the UK gold has easily outperformed the best performing funds over the past five years and only three UK funds out of hundreds have outperformed gold over the past ten years, led by Blackrock Gold & General which invests primarily in gold stocks!
Detailing his analysis Ash points out "Over the 5 years to mid-December, gold bullion priced in Sterling returned 218% net of ongoing storage costs. Physical silver rose 175% after storage costs.
The best-performing UK-domiciled fund available to retail investors returned 120% over the same period, including dividends and ongoing fees. Funds in the best-performing sector, Greater China, averaged just over 70% growth.
Those China equity funds cost an average maximum of 4.6% in upfront charges. Buying gold or silver on BullionVault costs a maximum 0.8% in dealing fees."
Now there is obviously no guarantee that past performance is an indicator of what is likely to happen ahead, but Mineweb's readers obviously think that the gold bull market has much further to run before any significant reversal is likely to come about and maybe they will be right yet again.
Have you entered the Mineweb gold price prediction competition for 2012 yet? If not you are invited to do so before our closing date of January 20th and see how well you can do against your peers - and against the experts.
Again we will be calculating our winners based on LBMA fixings and averages throughout the year, not on ‘Spot' prices.
Source: MineWeb
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| Sold for $7.6 Million to a private collector in 2002 |
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 05 Jan 2012
LONDON -
What is going to happen to the gold price in 2012? Well if those Mineweb readers who have entered our Annual Gold Price Competition for 2012 are in any measure correct, then the yellow metal price is set for another good gain this year .
Mineweb readers do appear mostly to be bullish on gold and in the past have indeed tended to outcall the reality, although it should be noted that last year the only entry category (High, Low, Year-end and Average) for which readers came up with a higher price on average than that which was actually recorded, was in the year-end figure, where the sharp drop towards the end of the year took just about all principal gold followers by surprise. In the other three categories Mineweb readers on average undercalled the actuality.
So where are they trending this year? Of the entries received to date 79% are looking for the yellow metal to hit a high of more than $2000 during 2012, with an overall average of $2218. They are looking for some quite wide fluctuations during the year, though, with a low of $1491 predicted so far, a year-end price of $1968 and a year's average gold price of $1827.
Obviously a contrarian would take this as a good sign to sell gold, but with global economic turmoil unlikely to see any serious improvement during the year - and perhaps the fault lines in the U.S. economy being further exposed during Presidential Election campaigning - safe haven investment in gold is likely to remain, or even grow. The year-end highlighting that despite its final quarter fallback, and an excess of adverse media comment, that gold outperformed the stock markets comfortably over 2011 may be beginning to sink in with the investment public.
Interestingly on this note, Adrian Ash writing on bullionvault.com has pointed out that in the UK gold has easily outperformed the best performing funds over the past five years and only three UK funds out of hundreds have outperformed gold over the past ten years, led by Blackrock Gold & General which invests primarily in gold stocks!
Detailing his analysis Ash points out "Over the 5 years to mid-December, gold bullion priced in Sterling returned 218% net of ongoing storage costs. Physical silver rose 175% after storage costs.
The best-performing UK-domiciled fund available to retail investors returned 120% over the same period, including dividends and ongoing fees. Funds in the best-performing sector, Greater China, averaged just over 70% growth.
Those China equity funds cost an average maximum of 4.6% in upfront charges. Buying gold or silver on BullionVault costs a maximum 0.8% in dealing fees."
Now there is obviously no guarantee that past performance is an indicator of what is likely to happen ahead, but Mineweb's readers obviously think that the gold bull market has much further to run before any significant reversal is likely to come about and maybe they will be right yet again.
Have you entered the Mineweb gold price prediction competition for 2012 yet? If not you are invited to do so before our closing date of January 20th and see how well you can do against your peers - and against the experts.
Again we will be calculating our winners based on LBMA fixings and averages throughout the year, not on ‘Spot' prices.
Source: MineWeb
