It's not often that I link to the World Socialist Web Site at EPJ, but
they have a detailed and sobering analysis of what an attack on Iran by
US/Israel would mean to the broader region surrounding Russia. From WSWS:
Russia
has undertaken intensive preparations during the past few months for a
possible military strike by Israel and the United States on Iran.
According to recent reports, the Russian General Staff expects a war
against Iran this summer, with enormous repercussions for not only the
Middle East but also the Caucasus.
Russian troops in the Caucasus have been technically upgraded, and a
missile division situated on the Caspian Sea has been placed in
readiness. The missile cruisers of the Caspian flotilla are now anchored
off the coast of Dagestan. The only Russian military base in the South
Caucasus, located in Armenia, is also on alert for military
intervention. Last autumn, Russia sent its aircraft carrier Kuznetsov to
the Syrian port Tartous following the escalation of the conflict in
Syria. Experts believe that Russia would support Tehran in the event of
war, at least on a military-technical level.
In a commentary in April, General Leonid Ivashov, president of the
Academy of Geopolitical Science, wrote that “a war against Iran would be
a war against Russia” and he called for a “political-diplomatic
alliance” with China and India. Operations were being undertaken
throughout the Middle East in order to destabilise the region and
proceed against China, Russia and Europe. The war against Iran, Ivashov
wrote, would “end up at our borders, destabilise the situation in the
North Caucasus and weaken our position in the Caspian region.”
Of central concern for Moscow are the consequences for the South
Caucasus in the event of a war against Iran. Armenia is the only ally of
the Kremlin in the region and has close economic links with Iran, while
neighbouring Georgia and Azerbaijan maintain military and economic ties
with the United States and Israel.
The Kremlin fears above all that Azerbaijan could participate in a
military alliance alongside Israel and the United States against Iran.
Azerbaijan borders Iran, Russia, Armenia and the Caspian Sea, and since
the mid-1990s has been an important military and economic ally of the US
in the South Caucasus, housing several American military bases.
Read the full report
here.
