Yesterday we posted an exhibit of the "S&P 500 Ultimate Death Cross". Several of you inquired "Where's the chart on Gold's 'Death Cross'?
Doug Short of AdvisorPerspectives.com has obliged y'all! Of course, gold's price was "fixed" at $35 (up from $20.67 in 1934) until 1971 when the gold redeemability to foreigners was suspended.
You technicians out there will have to draw out any correlations for yourself.
Mentally, we can visualize the slower 200-mo. MA for gold was crossed circa 1971-72.Clearly, thereafter gold's price shows no timidity crossing decisively in early 1993, losing much of its glitter from its 1980 high of $850+.
Equities were the calling from about that period until 2000 when gold's price performance has been stellar to the present, and stocks have languished.
Our best approach for which we lack the skill, is to employ a percentage deviation for both series from their respective 50-mo. averages. Maybe shorter monthly time periods for the averages would be more revealing, giving the 'handicapped' time frame for gold a clearer performance showing. 25/100????
It is clear from both charts as they appear now that 1978-1980 and 2000 were watershed periods in which both series reversed direction.
Using this observation, we conclude that neither series has exceeded its historical % deviations.
Our conclusion: The S&P will find support at its 200-mo. MA and continue its unimpressive advance. Gold is marketedly beneath its historical deviation from its high.
Dollar targets, and when? Sorry folks, we're not stepping into that 'fool's trap'. Two things will occur before gold hits its price peak:
A. Gold's price and the Dow Jones Ind. average must cross. If the Dow bottoms or peaks at 8,300 or 18,000, gold's price is likely to attain those levels at those cross junctions.
B. The Ratio of Gold/Silver will go to <20. If gold peaks at $5,500, silver will reach $344 and a Ratio of 15.
When? Another step aside for me. But, if gold following experts projections are any guide, we envision the longer term bull run in gold to continue to 2015-2017(?).
Of course, a dollar rout, and interest rates rising sharply higher (+20% on 30-yr bond) which we expect, time frames and price targets must be revised. We are not an investment advisor even in the loose sense of the phrase. All the risk is yours!
Doug Short of AdvisorPerspectives.com has obliged y'all! Of course, gold's price was "fixed" at $35 (up from $20.67 in 1934) until 1971 when the gold redeemability to foreigners was suspended.
You technicians out there will have to draw out any correlations for yourself.
Mentally, we can visualize the slower 200-mo. MA for gold was crossed circa 1971-72.Clearly, thereafter gold's price shows no timidity crossing decisively in early 1993, losing much of its glitter from its 1980 high of $850+.
Equities were the calling from about that period until 2000 when gold's price performance has been stellar to the present, and stocks have languished.
Our best approach for which we lack the skill, is to employ a percentage deviation for both series from their respective 50-mo. averages. Maybe shorter monthly time periods for the averages would be more revealing, giving the 'handicapped' time frame for gold a clearer performance showing. 25/100????
It is clear from both charts as they appear now that 1978-1980 and 2000 were watershed periods in which both series reversed direction.
Using this observation, we conclude that neither series has exceeded its historical % deviations.
Our conclusion: The S&P will find support at its 200-mo. MA and continue its unimpressive advance. Gold is marketedly beneath its historical deviation from its high.
Dollar targets, and when? Sorry folks, we're not stepping into that 'fool's trap'. Two things will occur before gold hits its price peak:
A. Gold's price and the Dow Jones Ind. average must cross. If the Dow bottoms or peaks at 8,300 or 18,000, gold's price is likely to attain those levels at those cross junctions.
B. The Ratio of Gold/Silver will go to <20. If gold peaks at $5,500, silver will reach $344 and a Ratio of 15.
When? Another step aside for me. But, if gold following experts projections are any guide, we envision the longer term bull run in gold to continue to 2015-2017(?).
Of course, a dollar rout, and interest rates rising sharply higher (+20% on 30-yr bond) which we expect, time frames and price targets must be revised. We are not an investment advisor even in the loose sense of the phrase. All the risk is yours!
