What happens when you buy assets down 80%?
Other supportive evidence
Cons to the approach
Assets that qualify
That is, you shouldn’t buy assets which have sharply declined as they’re likely to go down further before there’s any recovery. I’m not sure when this saying gained popularity but I suspect it speaks a lot to the short-term mentality of most investors today.
Because history suggests that you should do the opposite – buying assets down 60% or more has delivered fantastic results on 1, 3 and 5 year timeframes. And intuitively this makes sense. If almost everyone has sold out of an asset and there are only buyers left, there’s usually only one way for prices to go.
Vietnam is also a contender, having fallen 60% from its 2007 high. And among currencies, the Indian rupee is worth considering, given that it hit all-time lows versus the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. Of the above, gold miners, coffee, Vietnam and the rupee look the most interesting.
Over the past week, global fund manager Mebane Faber wrote a brief article with the aforementioned title. Specifically, he looked at the performance of sectors, industries and the total stock market in the U.S. after they’ve been hammered. And here’s what he found:
Faber isn’t the first to notice this phenomenon. Some years ago, two U.S. professors, Werner DeBondt and Richard Thaler examined the investment performance of U.S. stocks with the worst and best prior investment results. In each year from 1932-1977, the professors selected the 35 best and worst performing stocks over the preceding five year period. And the results were compared to a market index, namely all of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange.