SUEZ CANAL - Egypt
Submitted by Tyler Durden on
09/14/2014 17:55 -0400
Following
ISIS blitzkrieg in which it took over nearly half of Iraq and a third of Syria
in the blink of an eye, at which point it created its own Islamic State
Caliphate resulting in Obama's own personal war against the jihadists, some
have wondered what is ISIS' next step: surely its leadership will not merely
stagnatte as one after another US predator drone bomb away the capital Reqqa
until ISIS figurehead leader al-Baghdadi is killed or gravely wounded. To be
sure, the one thing ISIS, which stunned the world with the speed of its ascent,
can not afford is to stand still.
So
what is next on the strategic timeline for the Islamic State?
According
to one source, Al Arabiya, which cites Egyptian experts, the answer is none
other than the Suez Canal, and the country it is located in: Egypt.
“There
is definitely a threat from ISIS to Egypt,” Mohammed Badr, a professor of
political science at the University of Germany told Al Arabiya News, adding
that the group has the country in its “line of sight.”
“All
extremist groups represent a danger for Egypt,” Badr said, adding that “ISIS,
the Muslim Brotherhood, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis [an Islamist militant group] are
all dangerous for Egypt but the level of their threat is different.”
More
details from Al-Arabiya:
One
alleged ISIS militant took to social media to warn Egypt that it should be
expecting a “surprise” soon. “Except a surprise in
Egypt within days,” alleged ISIS member Abu Siyaf al-Masry wrote on his
personal Twitter account, according to the Cairo-based daily al-Masry al-Youm.
These
online threats are seen by some analysts as a means to mark their presence in
Egypt, despite their absence on the ground. “They don’t have any presence in
Egypt until now, which is why they use the internet and social media platforms
to interact with Egyptians and spread their influence,” Mohssen al-Faham, a
political analyst and commentator for Cairo-based daily al-Gomhuria, told Al
Arabiya News.
In
recent weeks, the Islamist group started showing notable signs that it might be
interested in expanding its influence in Egypt.
ISIS'
strategy on how to infiltrate Egypt, if indeed that is the case, is simple:
ISIS has started to communicate with and coach Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, Egypt’s
deadliest militant group, and share advice with it on how to create secret
cells.
“ISIS
and Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis are linked on an ideological level even though the
group is not believed to be officially linked to ISIS insurgents,” Badr said.
“Their
exchange is another sign that shows a clear threat to Egypt from ISIS,” he added.
While
the west is traumatized by three beheadings of western journalists in the past
month, in Egypt this is almost a daily occurrence, especially if the word
"Israel" is uttered. Last week, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which is based
in the Sinai Peninsula claimed to have beheaded four men accused of being
Israeli Mossad spies in a video that seemed to have been inspired by the
methods of ISIS.
Meanwhile
Egypt, already deep in political turmoil with the military regime doing its
best to cleanse all representatives of the US-backed Muslim Brotherhood
(remember them?), appears to not be too concerned about the ISIS threat.
Specifically, the possibility of an ISIS offensive was downplayed by an
Egyptian Interior Ministry spokesman, who told Al Arabiya News that al-Qaeda
and the Muslim Brotherhood were “the two main terrorist organizations” that
threatened Egypt.
“ISIS
cannot reach a country like Egypt given the cohesion between people and the
unity of the nation,” Interior Ministry spokesman Hany Abdellatif told Al
Arabiya News, adding that the group targets weak, failed states.
“But
we [the Interior Ministry] are still getting threats of terrorism and must
remain vigilant as the region is ablaze,” Abdellatif said.
And
while Egypt may or may not be the next territorial expansion for ISIS, a new
threat is emerging in the Middle East/North Africa region.
According
to Reuters,
a new armed group calling itself the Caliphate Soldiers in Algeria has split
from al Qaeda's North African branch and sworn loyalty to the radical breakaway
group Islamic State fighting in Syria and Iraq. A breakaway of key Algerian
commanders from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, known as AQIM, would show
deepening rivalry between al Qaeda's core command and the Islamic State over
leadership of the transnational Islamist militancy. As we expected several
months ago, as Al Qaeda's reputation in the terrorist world plummets and is
replaced by the "bloodthirsty" ISISites, more and more splinter
terrorist groups will gravitate to the "cool, new" clique.
In
a communique, AQIM central region commander Khaled Abu Suleimane, whose real
name is Gouri Abdelmalek, claimed leadership of the new group, joined by an AQIM
commander of an eastern region in Algeria, where the al Qaeda wing has its
base. "You have in the Islamic Maghreb men if you order them they will
obey you," Suleimane said in reference to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader
of the Islamic State. "The Maghreb has deviated from the true path."
The
communique was posted on jihadi websites. Algerian officials did not
immediately comment on the statement.
The
Algeria splinter group is the latest to side with Baghdadi over al Qaeda's
aging chieftain Ayman al-Zawahri, as the Islamic State appeals to younger
militants with successes in gaining territory in Iraq and Syria.
Finally,
to cement the fact that Al Qaeda is no longer even remotely relevant to anyone,
and certainly not the CIA, Site
Intelligence reported earlier that Al-Qaeda released its annual video for
the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, and in this installment, placed group
official Hossam Abdul Raouf in the prominent role of lead speaker, and denied
reports of its waning influence and strength. Translated:
Al Qaeda is dead,
replaced by its even more ferocious, if mostly for populist purposes, spin
offs, ISIS and now, the Caliphate Soldiers.
And
if and when the Islamic State and its Caliphate Soldiers take over the Suez
Canal, watch as all those Brent shorts, many of which are rumored to be
originating at Liberty 33 itself, suddenly get a margin call.
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